Sunday, November 2, 2008

Change

This picture was taken in 1937, and shows a group of refugees in Arkansas lined up, hoping to get some food. Look at the people's shoes and clothes. I think you would probably be hard pressed to find this level of poverty and hopelessness in the country today. With that, though, the buzzword or our day appears to be "Change". Its change we want, and, I fear, it is change that we are about to get. My word of caution is, be careful what you wish for.

I believe in the next four years we will see unprecedented change in the world, and in our country. Things that we would never have dreamed of will unfold before our eyes, and things that would have seemed unimaginable a few years ago will become a reality. So, I will give my predictions of things we will see in the next four years. Before giving my predictions, I should share a little about my background. Most of you know that presently I am teaching high school. However, I spent most of the last 20 years working on National Security, Nanotechnology, and in various executive positions in the corporate world, and in government organizations. While I am not presently actively working in National Security, I stay in close contact with my old friends who are still there. My predictions are not based on any inside information, but just my analysis based on my experiences in the areas above.

CHANGE: My Predictions for the Next Four Years:

1) We will see Martial Law declared in the United States. As our present economic crisis moves from Wall Street to Main Street, suffering among common people will increase. As the crisis worsens, it is likely that at some point there will be supply disruptions of basic necessity items in some major cities. These disruptions will lead to rioting and looting. While the crisis will be spurred by supply disruptions in food or fuel, the looting will be towards places like Malls and department stores. Martial Law will be declared to try and restore order.


2)We will see a Nuclear Weapon used in anger. I do not believe it will be a terrorist attack, but will be a "State on State" attack, i.e., one country will bomb another country. This attack might not directly involve the US, but will bring the US to the brink of a full scale nuclear exchange.

3) Our "basic rights" as Americans will be redefined. Political correctness is presently realized primarily as pressure exerted in the workplace. You still have freedom of speech, but many opinions expressed at work will kill your career, or get you fired. Political correctness will make the next step forward, however, and will become law. Laws like the "fairness doctrine", and other similar measures will basically remove our freedom of speech. In addition, unrest in the cities will likely lead to a loss of our right to bear arms.

4) We will likely see another major terrorist attack against the United States. I believe it will be different than the 9/11 type of attack, but will be just as terrible. I believe the next attack will be an act designed to collapse our weakened economy. I also believe that some form of a spectacular attack on our children would be possible.

5) The present reprieve from high gas prices will be short lived. High gas prices will return, but this time we will also experience shortages where we will see gas stations running out of gas, similar to the 1970's, but much more severe this time.

6) We will likely see some fundamental change to the structure of the US Supreme Court. There will be a legislative or executive directive possibly adding new members to the Supreme Court.

7) As the economy worsens, there will be a major move to hard assets like gold. As this happens, gold prices will approach $10,000 an ounce. Private ownership of Gold and Silver will be outlawed, except for those with established businesses making jewelry or use in electronics.

I am not trying to be gloom and doom, but I am concerned that people do not realize the risks we face. We act as if there are no consequences to the decisions we make, and the directions we take. We act as if another great depression could never occur, or that we could never lose our constitutional rights.

And the change will come.

19 comments:

Jim said...

At least you're optimistic about the future.

Misery Index said...

Unfortunately Jim, I think he's being rather conservative on what will happen. I don't think these changes are going to happen within the next week, or even this year however, I think he's right with a timeline of at most 18-24 months.

Welcome to change into a new nation.

And no, that's not being paranoid, that's being realistic....

Brother Dave said...

The current (and future) pressures that could bring about such predicted changes seem to be based on our economy and the ever-present threat from those who would do our country harm.

I have always wondered when the U.S. might fall under martial law. Law enforcement agencies have SWAT strike forces that can quickly be beefed up. Then we would have Martial Law Forces that have been well trained to take their positions.

National Guard forces of the states are easily mobilized as well. Most guard units have been to Iraq after strong training for combat.

All of the predicted changes have nothing to do with who gets elected, in my opinion. However, they have everything to do with an ongoing climate of change.

One thing that might save us from food shortages and bread lines is the ramping up of agribusiness in South and Central America. To survive, these businesses would need to lower their profit margins in order to move product into the markets.

Anonymous said...

Dude, I never took you for this much of a doom-sayer. You've been dragging me down for weeks. RSS dropped from my reader. I'd hate to live like you believing doom was around every corner.

Anonymous said...

I doubt that your forecast of gloom and domination will be able to fully be fulfilled because your assumptions are based on the idea that the vast majority of Americans will put up with a severe curtailment of any of their freedoms and wealth they have become used to over the last 3-4 generations. The soon to assend self-proclaimed elites are far out numbered by the now much better informed citizens. Mind you I did not say educated, but we do communicate amongst ourselves (like this blog) much more than at anytime in history so ideas can be spread rapidly.

One idea might be a movement to remove the current government by legal means (elections ) over the next 4-6 years and replace them with a more conservative, responsive and independent leadership and install term limits. Once the liberal Senate and House "lifers" are out, the process of moving the country back toward its right-winged, conservative roots.

I believe that not much of what got us here could have happened if the "average voter" had simply taken an interest what was going on in the country and voted in every election. Unfortunately, we were more interested in reality TV shows, sports and things that only directly effected "me". The only good part of your prediction is that removing some of our freedom and voice will finally waken the sleeping giant again.

Onthehard said...

I have to agree with 'Anonymous I'. I know it's your blog and all, but stick to presenting us great content and put your political ruminations somewhere else.

MAYBELLINE said...

Holy smokes. I bet you can clear out a party. Could you please search yourself to make some positive predictions? By the way, how accurate are your prognostications?

By the way - I really enjoy the photos.

Dustin said...

If your not interested in what he has to say, dont read the captions and just look at the pictures. He has a right to say what he thinks needs to be said. Just because something is "gloomy" doesn't mean you should ignore it, if major change like this does occur... try to ignore it then.

Anonymous said...

You forgot to mention the loss of life. Many will die in the fuel/food shortages, many more from disease. Perhaps enough to bring us back down to pre-industrial civilization. I'm also curious on your opinion of the likelihood of a civil war / "peasant's revolt".

Keep the Sunday comments coming. The purpose of the study of history is to learn from our mistakes.

~Anonymous T~

POPE GEORGE RINGO said...

We truly are a fortunate people, for as rough and tumble as things become we always had access to food and comfort. Even the poorest of our poor are far better off than most of the people around the rest of the globe. Your predictions are alarming, to say the least. I can see gasoline shortages in our future, but we have been there before. I do not see a food shortage problem, however. The US is pretty much a self sufficient agricultural mecca (unlike most of the world) and a major factor in most uprisings throughout world history has been the shortage of food. IN a nutshell, I do not believe that the government would sit back and allow chaos when food can readily be supplied. It is time for belt tightening for us all. Too many of us have lived beyond our means for too long via credit cards. We will have to do without the latest gadgets, big screen tv's, blu ray dvd players, etc etc. By adjusting to a less extravagant lifestyle, I believe we can weather any storm that comes our way. After all, we are Americans. God Bless America and our next President, whoever he may be.

Anonymous said...

It's Theodore Roosevelt after the assasination attempt in Milwaukee.

MAYBELLINE said...

Simmer down, Dustin. It's interesting what tone the typed word can take on by the reader that was never intended by the writer.

Dustin said...

Wasn't tryin to be too negative :D

Norkio said...

If you haven't already ensured that your credit and identity are secure now is the time. With the amount of money available to consumers, credit card debt piling up, and inability to pay credit debt down, identity theft will be even more rampant. If you have children under the age of 18 run their credit reports and then look into a service that will protect yours and theirs.

Anonymous said...

The stock markets will signal far ahead of any surprise any hardship. unfortunately, for many, our living standard premium versus the developing world will not be maintained.

novella123 said...

im 13 and i just noticed ur site
and ur predictions u made about the future do seem like they might happen no doubt about it and u r being realistic this may happen if we dont get our act together
thanks for being real

donnastone84 said...

While I don't know if everything you mentioned will happen, I do think that things will get worse before they got better. In order for things to really change, someone has to admit some sort of defeat rather than going on as if everything is normal. Sometimes the only way for a government to really change is to fall apart and pick up the pieces. We have allowed our government to control too much of our lives. I see how some people might say you are negative, but no one ever thinks the worst thing possible will ever happen to them or their country. It can...and it probably will if we don't wake up.

William said...

I check in on this blog on occasion to see some pics and occaisionally interesting tidbits relating to the photos, but was disappointed to see what feels like a political discourse snaking it's way into your posts.

I'm also not sure why we're supposed to be impressed by someone with "executive" experience. That typically means you were the empty suit who got in the way of people doing real work and have no idea what you're doing.

Stick with what makes this blog interesting, sharing an interest in the cool windows to the past, we just got done with an absurdly long election cycle, no one wants to hear anymore political commercials for a little bit.

Mary said...

I, too, believe that great change is unfolding even now, with much more dramatic turns in the future. You might be interested in the "Global Guerrillas" blog, written by John Robb, a special-ops USAF pilot, who writes about the future and contours of both war and peace. http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/ The counterpart to the unsettling change is the opportunity to act in concert with your neighbors, helping each other, creating resilient communities.